Getting Started
A market’s exception deserves its own scenario
The main rule may be easy to summarize, but a source failure, tie, revision, or fallback clause can decide the outcome. Model the exception…
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Getting Started
A correct forecast can still be a bad position
Being right about the outcome is only one part of the decision. Price, size, fees, timing, and capital lock determine whether the position made…
Market Watch
A longer source chain needs a larger margin
When a thesis depends on several publishers, transformations, and timestamps, every link can add delay or ambiguity. Map the chain before sizing the edge.
Market Watch
A research shortcut is still an assumption
A summary, alert, or copied estimate can save time, but it also imports someone else’s source choice, cutoff, and interpretation into your thesis.
Getting Started
The cheapest share is not always the cheapest risk
A low price can look attractive while hiding a difficult source, thin liquidity, long capital lock, or a payoff that does not match the…
Getting Started
The first explanation is not the only explanation
A price can fit several stories at once. Write competing explanations and the evidence that would separate them before committing to one.
Market Watch
A market can be informative before it is actionable
A price move can reveal that expectations changed without telling you why or whether your order can still execute. Separate the signal from the…
Getting Started
A limit order is also a time commitment
Leaving an order open keeps capital and attention attached to an idea. Give the order a time rule as well as a price rule.