Market Watch
A market update is not a full thesis update
New information may change one assumption while leaving the rest of the case intact. Update the affected line before rewriting the whole story.
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Market Watch
The no-trade belongs in the journal
A skipped order can teach you about spread, rules, timing, and sizing. Recording only fills creates a biased picture of the process.
Getting Started
A probability needs an outcome set
A percentage is not a complete estimate until you define the outcomes, cutoff, source, and payout that make up its denominator.
Getting Started
The empty side of a market is information too
A thin or one-sided book changes what an order means. Treat missing quotes, wide spreads, and small size as part of the market state.
Market Watch
A market thesis needs a timestamp
Record what was known, what price was executable, and what rules were visible when you acted. Without a clock, review becomes hindsight.
Getting Started
A data source is only useful when the contract names it
A reputable source can still be the wrong source for settlement. Match the publisher, version, cutoff, and rule language before relying on a number.
Market Watch
A chart can hide the moment that matters
The same price move can look calm or extreme depending on the time window. Match the chart to the decision you are making.
Market Watch
Normalize the question before comparing two markets
A price gap is not meaningful until the two contracts use the same event, cutoff, unit, source, and payout logic.