A correct forecast can still be a bad position

You can forecast the outcome correctly and still regret the position. The result answers one question; the trade had several more.

A good position needs a price, size, execution path, and time horizon that fit the forecast.

Compare forecast with price

Write your estimated probability beside the executable quote, not the last print. Then subtract fees and account for the size you can actually fill.

A correct forecast bought at an unfavorable price can leave little or no room for the uncertainty in the estimate.

Match size to uncertainty

Use a smaller position when the source, rule, or timing is difficult to verify. Confidence in the outcome does not remove uncertainty about the path to settlement.

Keep the maximum loss and the capital that may remain tied up visible before you place the order.

Review the whole decision

After settlement, ask whether the entry, size, and timing were reasonable with the information available then. Do not let a correct result erase a weak process.

The useful question is not only whether your forecast was right. It is whether the price, size, and time commitment made the forecast worth acting on.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).