A market’s exception deserves its own scenario

Most market summaries start with the normal case. The result can turn on the sentence that describes what happens when normal stops applying.

An exception is not a footnote when it changes the payout or the evidence needed to settle.

Find the fallback language

Read the rule for missing data, ties, revisions, late publication, and conflicting sources. Copy the trigger into your notes in plain language.

Do not assume that an unavailable source means the nearest substitute will be used. The contract may specify a different path.

Model the exception separately

Give the fallback its own scenario, probability, and time cost. If it changes the amount or date of payment, it belongs in the position comparison.

A normal-case estimate can be correct and still miss the scenario that the rules use when evidence is incomplete.

Check the evidence before the price

List what would confirm that the fallback was triggered and which document has priority. This helps separate a rule event from a market reaction to a rumor about the rule.

The useful question is not whether the main rule is clear. It is whether you know what happens when the main rule cannot be applied cleanly.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).