Getting Started
An order’s status is part of the evidence
A submitted, partially filled, cancelled, or rejected order tells a different story. Keep order state separate from intended exposure.
Category: Getting Started
Practical explanations of prices, orders, and settlement.
Getting Started
A market’s exception deserves its own scenario
The main rule may be easy to summarize, but a source failure, tie, revision, or fallback clause can decide the outcome. Model the exception…
Getting Started
A correct forecast can still be a bad position
Being right about the outcome is only one part of the decision. Price, size, fees, timing, and capital lock determine whether the position made…
Getting Started
The cheapest share is not always the cheapest risk
A low price can look attractive while hiding a difficult source, thin liquidity, long capital lock, or a payoff that does not match the…
Getting Started
The first explanation is not the only explanation
A price can fit several stories at once. Write competing explanations and the evidence that would separate them before committing to one.
Getting Started
A limit order is also a time commitment
Leaving an order open keeps capital and attention attached to an idea. Give the order a time rule as well as a price rule.
Getting Started
A probability needs an outcome set
A percentage is not a complete estimate until you define the outcomes, cutoff, source, and payout that make up its denominator.
Getting Started
The empty side of a market is information too
A thin or one-sided book changes what an order means. Treat missing quotes, wide spreads, and small size as part of the market state.
Getting Started
A data source is only useful when the contract names it
A reputable source can still be the wrong source for settlement. Match the publisher, version, cutoff, and rule language before relying on a number.
Getting Started
The last traded price is not your entry price
A last trade proves that two orders matched. Your side, size, spread, fees, and timing decide what you can actually execute.