The market title is a shortcut; the rules are the contract

A short title can fit on a dashboard. It cannot carry every settlement detail.

Two markets can mention the same event while using different cutoffs, thresholds, or sources. Treat the title as an index and the rules as the contract.

Expand the label

Write the outcome, time window, resolver, and exceptions. A title asking whether a policy will happen may hide a rule that requires an official announcement rather than implementation.

Use the market identifier and URL when logging a decision. Names can be shortened, translated, or reused; the identifier gives your notes a stable reference.

Check before comparing prices

Cross-market comparisons only become useful after the payoffs match. Two rate-cut markets may differ because one resolves on an announcement and the other on an effective rate change.

A few words about a date, source, or cancellation can remove the parity you thought you found. Put the differences in a table before doing the arithmetic.

Keep the copy audit-ready

Save the rule text, timestamp, and link used for the decision. If the rule changes, treat the new wording as a new assumption instead of silently rewriting the old analysis.

The useful question is not what the title suggests. It is whether another reader could reach the same settlement answer from the rule text alone.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).