A market’s evidence window should match its settlement window

A data point looks convincing until you check when it was measured. The right source outside the contract's window can answer the wrong question.

The evidence window and the settlement window need to line up before a probability means what you think it means.

Write both clocks

Record when the event is measured, when the source publishes it, and the cutoff named in the rules. Keep the time zone visible in every note.

A report released after the cutoff may confirm what happened without qualifying as settlement evidence.

Separate early signals from final evidence

Use preliminary data to form a view, then label it as provisional. Do not blend an early estimate with the final source as if they were one observation.

If the source revises a value, save both versions and note which one the contract can use.

Reprice when the window changes

When a cutoff passes or a source becomes unavailable, update the scenario rather than carrying the old probability forward unchanged. The time rule is part of the market state.

The useful question is not whether the data is accurate. It is whether the data was produced, published, and accepted inside the exact window that settles the contract.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).