The event can end before the market is ready to settle

A contract’s event window can close while the final answer is still being assembled. Treat the event date and the settlement date as separate clocks.

One clock tells you when an outcome can happen. The other tells you when a named source can publish the evidence and when disputes can be resolved.

Map the clocks

Write the event cutoff, expected source publication, resolution window, and any dispute period. A YES outcome can be obvious to a reader and still wait for the rule’s official source.

Imagine a market about a scheduled announcement that resolves from a designated document. The announcement occurs Friday, but the document is posted Monday. Trading decisions and capital availability span both dates.

Plan for late evidence

Check whether a preliminary report counts, whether revisions replace it, and what happens when the source is silent. A position that relies on immediate payout may be wrong even if your outcome estimate is sound.

Keep a timestamped copy of the source and current rule. Do not assume social posts or media summaries can substitute for the named resolver.

Price the lockup

Capital may remain tied up through the resolution path. Include fees, spread, and opportunity cost when comparing similar prices.

The useful question is not only what happens in the event window. It is when the contract can be conclusively settled under its rules.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).