A viral post is a lead, not a market signal

A post can move a market before anyone checks what it actually says. Treat it as a lead: capture the timestamp, identify the original claim, and find the document that could prove or disprove it.

Retweets add reach, not evidence. An image may omit context, and a quote-post can change the meaning.

Preserve the first version

Save the URL, author, timestamp, and exact text as seen. Note whether the account is reporting, speculating, or linking to someone else. Do not rewrite a rumor into a fact.

Then translate the claim into a testable sentence. ‘Policy changed’ might become ‘the named agency publishes an order before date X.’ That sentence can be compared to market rules.

Build two independent checks

Look for a primary document and a separate measurement. A press release confirms what was announced; a docket, dataset, or official feed can confirm whether the condition occurred.

Check time zones, edits, and deleted posts. A source published after your order cannot explain a price move before it.

Keep the uncertainty visible

Write what you could not verify. A market can move on incomplete information, but your notes should not.

Before trading, save the post and the rule side by side. The useful question is not whether a post feels convincing. It is whether the claim maps cleanly to a source and a settlement condition.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).