The most important word in a market may be in the rules

Will an event happen by Friday? It looks like a simple question until Friday arrives and people disagree about what counts.

Did the announcement count? Did the action need to be completed? Which timezone defines Friday?

Write the resolution before the headline

A well-defined market names the observable event, eligible source, deadline, and treatment of edge cases. Those details let participants reason about the same contract.

Consider a hypothetical product launch. Announcing a launch date, opening a waitlist, and making the product generally available are different milestones.

If the market means the third, the first two should not be treated as equivalent just because a headline uses the word launch.

Test the awkward cases

What if the source corrects its report? What if the announcement arrives just before the deadline but access begins after it? What if availability is limited to one region?

Write those scenarios down and see whether the rule yields a clear result.

Read like a participant

A trader should be able to state what evidence would settle the contract without relying on the creator's private intention. If the answer changes depending on an unstated assumption, more precision is needed.

Interesting questions bring people to a market. Clear resolution criteria let them understand what they are trading.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).