Grok can find a price gap. Can the trade survive it?

Give an AI two market prices and it can flag a difference in seconds. Give it two slightly different contracts and it can also invent an opportunity that does not exist.

A rate decision, a futures price, and a survey result may all describe the same broad story. They do not automatically describe the same payoff.

Make the contract match

Write down the outcome, deadline, timezone, resolution source, and treatment of cancellations for each instrument. A model should explain every mismatch before it calculates an edge.

Suppose your research estimate is 62% and an executable YES offer is 55 cents. In a simplified binary model, the seven-cent gap is expected value before costs. It is not seven cents you will collect on every trade. The position can still lose its entire purchase price.

Give the AI a narrow job

Ask it to build a comparison table with links, timestamps, and missing fields. Require an explicit unknown when it cannot verify a term. Keep the actual quote lookup separate from the language model.

Save its probability estimate before the event. Compare many such estimates with later outcomes. A persuasive explanation after the result tells you very little about forecasting skill.

The workflow becomes useful when you can audit it. Fast summaries help. Clear contracts, fresh quotes, and a track record of calibration do the harder work.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).