A longer source chain needs a larger margin

One source points to another, which points to a revision, which finally reaches the document named in the rules. The chain can be valid and still be fragile.

Every extra link adds a place for timing, definitions, or interpretation to diverge from your original estimate.

Draw the source chain

List the publisher, feed, transformation, release time, and contract rule in order. Mark which link is authoritative for settlement and which links are only research inputs.

A dashboard that combines several feeds may be useful for discovery without being the evidence that decides the outcome.

Mark the breakpoints

Ask where a delay, revision, missing field, or unit conversion could change the conclusion. Keep those breakpoints visible instead of compressing them into one confidence score.

If two links use different cutoffs, the apparent agreement may be an artifact of timing rather than confirmation.

Size after the chain is clear

Require a wider margin between your estimate and the executable price when the source path is long or difficult to audit. A thin edge has less room for one late or ambiguous link.

The useful question is not how many sources support the thesis. It is how many handoffs sit between those sources and the rule that will settle the market.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).