A market update is not a full thesis update

A new headline arrives and the market moves. The easy reaction is to replace the entire thesis with the latest sentence.

Most updates change one input first: a date, source, threshold, probability, or execution condition.

Name the changed input

Write the old assumption and the new evidence side by side. Mark whether the update changes the event, the timing, the source, or only the price you can trade.

A revised estimate is not automatically a revised settlement rule. Keep those two changes separate.

Recalculate the affected line

If the update changes one probability or payoff, recalculate that part and show what remains unchanged. A small input change can matter a lot when the position is large, but it does not make every earlier observation useless.

Record the time of the update and the executable quote that followed. The market may move again before the review is complete.

Decide what would change the rest

List the evidence that would invalidate the remaining assumptions. This keeps a single update from becoming an excuse to chase every move on the chart.

The useful question is not whether the newest headline feels important. It is which line of the thesis it actually changes, and what evidence still supports the other lines.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).