A market thesis needs a timestamp

A market note can sound obvious after the result is known. The missing detail is usually the clock.

A thesis is a decision made with information available at a particular time, not a summary written after the chart has finished.

Capture the information set

Save the source publication time, the market rules you read, the displayed book, and the price you could actually trade. Put them in the note before placing the order.

A later update may make the outcome look inevitable even though it was not available when the position was opened.

Separate the event clock from the trade clock

An announcement can be published at one time, your order can fill later, and the contract can settle on a third schedule. Keep all three timestamps visible.

If a source is revised, record the revision instead of replacing the original observation. That keeps a review honest about what changed.

Review the decision, not only the result

Ask whether the rule was clear, the price was executable, and the size matched the uncertainty at that moment. A correct outcome can still come from a weak process.

The useful question is not whether the final chart agrees with you. It is whether the reasoning was defensible with the information and price available when you acted.

Further reading: Prices and order books · Resolution rules · Current fees.

Explore the markets: Open Polymarket (referral link).